Sell in May and go away is May(be) something to consider this year?
Judging by history, further advances for the SPX could prove to be a bad omen for stocks.
As we all know, SPX has had a huge start this year, gaining an amazing 16-17%, pitting it in the hal;l of fame starts. There is a slight problem though. Other years with impressive starts to the year have been followed by less rosy returns.
Below is a table outlining the 10 best starts, January to April, and the performance for the rest of the year. Trading according to calendars seems overly simplistic, but depending on the coming days performance, the sell in May could be wort considering.
When gains have been approximately 13-15% in the period January to April, the following performance has been good. The problem is that performances of 16% and higher have been followed by rather muted performance.
Sell in May 2019 could prove to be a great strategy, especially if the SPX continues the latest melt up.
Source, table by Bloomberg
